Mpox (monkeypox) risk and mortality associated with HIV infection: a national case-control study in Nigeria.

INTRODUCTION: Recent outbreaks of mpox are characterised by changes in the natural history of the disease, the demographic and clinical characteristics of the cases, and widening geographical distribution. We investigated the role of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs) coinfection among cases in the re-emergence of mpox to inform national and global response. METHODS: We conducted a national descriptive and case-control study on cases in the 2017-2019 Nigerian mpox outbreak. Mpox cases were age, sex and geographical area matched each with two randomly selected controls from a representative national HIV/AIDS survey. Logistic regression was used to investigate the association between HIV infection and the risk of mpox acquisition and death. RESULTS: Among 204 suspected mpox cases, 86 were confirmed (median age 31 years (IQR 27-38 years), mostly males (61 cases, 70.9%). Three-fifths of mpox cases had serological evidence of one or more STIs with 27.9% (24/86) coinfected with HIV. The case fatality rate was 9.4% (8/86) and 20.8% (5/24) overall and in HIV positive cases respectively. Mpox cases were more likely to have HIV coinfection compared with an age, gender and geography-matched control group drawn from the general population (OR 45 (95% CI 6.1 to 333.5, p=0.002) and when compared with non mpox rash cases (7.29 (95% CI 2.6 to 20.5, p<0.0001)). HIV coinfection and young age were associated with mortality among mpox cases (aOR 13.66 (95% CI 1.88 to 98.95, p=0.010) and aOR 0.90 (0.82-0.97, p=0.008), respectively). CONCLUSION: HIV infection was associated with a higher risk of contracting and dying from mpox. Children are also at high risk of death. STIs in mpox cases may be suggestive of high-risk sexual behaviours among these individuals.

Distinct monkeypox virus lineages co-circulating in humans before 2022.

The 2022 global mpox outbreak raises questions about how this zoonotic disease established effective human-to-human transmission and its potential for further adaptation. The 2022 outbreak virus is related to an ongoing outbreak in Nigeria originally reported in 2017, but the evolutionary path linking the two remains unclear due to a lack of genomic data between 2018, when virus exportations from Nigeria were first recorded, and 2022, when the global mpox outbreak began. Here, 18 viral genomes obtained from patients across southern Nigeria in 2019-2020 reveal multiple lineages of monkeypox virus (MPXV) co-circulated in humans for several years before 2022, with progressive accumulation of mutations consistent with APOBEC3 activity over time. We identify Nigerian A.2 lineage isolates, confirming the lineage that has been multiply exported to North America independently of the 2022 outbreak originated in Nigeria, and that it has persisted by human-to-human transmission in Nigeria for more than 2 years before its latest exportation. Finally, we identify a lineage-defining APOBEC3-style mutation in all A.2 isolates that disrupts gene A46R, encoding a viral innate immune modulator. Collectively, our data demonstrate MPXV capacity for sustained diversification within humans, including mutations that may be consistent with established mechanisms of poxvirus adaptation.

Case Report: Recurrent Mpox in a Healthcare Worker in Nigeria.

We report the first case of recurrent Mpox from Africa. The patient is a 36-year-old, previously healthy, HIV-negative male healthcare worker who developed two episodes of laboratory-confirmed Mpox in 2017 and 2018, 9 months apart. In both cases, he had prior close contact with confirmed Mpox cases in the hospital setting. On follow-up in 2022, he also reported recurrent postcoital skin eruptions over a previously healed genital scar from the first episode of Mpox. We highlight the need for future studies to investigate the true burden and risk factors for Mpox reinfection, relapse, and recrudescence.

Human Mpox in People Living with HIV: Epidemiologic and Clinical Perspectives from Nigeria.

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is disproportionately affected by mpox and HIV. We described epidemiologic trends and clinical experiences in the management of mpox in people living with HIV (PLWH) in Nigeria and further examined how the rapidly accumulating body of knowledge from the 2022 global mpox outbreak might be explored to improve mpox care in PLWH in SSA. During the 2017/2018 Nigerian mpox outbreak, we reported that 9/40 (22.5%) hospitalized mpox patients with known HIV status were PLWH. In the 2022 global mpox outbreak, 52% of confirmed mpox cases with known HIV status were PLWH, predominantly sexual and gender minority groups. However, substantial missing data on HIV status of confirmed mpox cases highlights a critical gap in HIV testing as a component of mpox management. Before 2022, sexual activity was not commonly linked to mpox transmission, but this was identified as a major driver of transmission during the 2022 mpox outbreak. Notable sexual history observed in Nigerian mpox patients in 2017/2018 suggests that the contribution of sexual activity in human-to-human mpox transmission might have been underappreciated for years. Our cohort of PLWH with mpox, predominantly individuals with advanced or uncontrolled HIV, were significantly more likely to experience severe mpox manifestations and prolonged disease compared with those without HIV. This contrasts with the generally less remarkable differences in mpox presentation between people with and without HIV in Western countries, an observation that can be at least partially explained by more stable HIV disease. The unavailability of mpox antiviral drugs and vaccines in SSA highlights global inequity in mpox response, which requires an urgent attention. As mpox countermeasures become available in SSA, lessons learned from their use in Western countries could provide important guidance for care providers in SSA. Public health measures to mitigate stigmatization in PLWH with mpox is also critical.

Orthopoxvirus Infections in Rodents, Nigeria, 2018-2019.

To investigate animal reservoirs of monkeypox virus in Nigeria, we sampled 240 rodents during 2018-2019. Molecular (real-time PCR) and serologic (IgM) evidence indicated orthopoxvirus infections, but presence of monkeypox virus was not confirmed. These results can be used to develop public health interventions to reduce human infection with orthopoxviruses.

Epidemiology of Human Mpox - Worldwide, 2018-2021.

Monkeypox (mpox) is a zoonotic disease caused by Monkeypox virus (MPXV), an Orthopoxvirus; the wild mammalian reservoir species is not known. There are two genetic clades of MPXV: clade I and clade II (historically found in central and west Africa, respectively), with only Cameroon reporting both clades (1). Human cases have historically been reported from 1) mostly rural, forested areas in some central and west African countries; 2) countries reporting cases related to population migration or travel of infected persons; and 3) exposure to imported infected mammals (2). The annual number of cases in Africa has risen since 2014 and cumulatively surpassed reports from the previous 40 years for most countries. This reemergence of mpox might be due to a combination of environmental and ecological changes, animal or human movement, the cessation of routine smallpox vaccination since its eradication in 1980, improvements in disease detection and diagnosis, and genetic changes in the virus (2). This report describes the epidemiology of mpox since 1970 and during 2018-2021, using data from national surveillance programs, World Health Organization (WHO) bulletins, and case reports, and addresses current diagnostic and treatment challenges in countries with endemic disease. During 2018-2021, human cases were recognized and confirmed in six African countries, with most detected in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Nigeria. The reemergence and increase in cases resulted in its being listed in 2019 as a priority disease for immediate and routine reporting through the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response strategy in the WHO African region.* In eight instances, patients with mpox were identified in four countries outside of Africa after travel from Nigeria. Since 2018, introductory and intermediate training courses on prevention and control of mpox for public health and health care providers have been available online at OpenWHO.†,§ The global outbreak that began in May 2022¶ has further highlighted the need for improvements in laboratory-based surveillance and access to treatments and vaccines to prevent and contain the infection, including in areas of Africa with endemic mpox.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Pandemic across Africa: Current Status of Vaccinations and Implications for the Future.

The introduction of effective vaccines in December 2020 marked a significant step forward in the global response to COVID-19. Given concerns with access, acceptability, and hesitancy across Africa, there is a need to describe the current status of vaccine uptake in the continent. An exploratory study was undertaken to investigate these aspects, current challenges, and lessons learnt across Africa to provide future direction. Senior personnel across 14 African countries completed a self-administered questionnaire, with a descriptive analysis of the data. Vaccine roll-out commenced in March 2021 in most countries. COVID-19 vaccination coverage varied from low in Cameroon and Tanzania and up to 39.85% full coverage in Botswana at the end of 2021; that is, all doses advocated by initial protocols versus the total population, with rates increasing to 58.4% in Botswana by the end of June 2022. The greatest increase in people being fully vaccinated was observed in Uganda (20.4% increase), Botswana (18.5% increase), and Zambia (17.9% increase). Most vaccines were obtained through WHO-COVAX agreements. Initially, vaccination was prioritised for healthcare workers (HCWs), the elderly, adults with co-morbidities, and other at-risk groups, with countries now commencing vaccination among children and administering booster doses. Challenges included irregular supply and considerable hesitancy arising from misinformation fuelled by social media activities. Overall, there was fair to reasonable access to vaccination across countries, enhanced by government initiatives. Vaccine hesitancy must be addressed with context-specific interventions, including proactive programmes among HCWs, medical journalists, and the public.

Sexual history of human monkeypox patients seen at a tertiary hospital in Bayelsa, Nigeria.

Background: Human monkeypox (HMPX) is currently spreading outside endemic countries in Africa and the majority of those affected are gay and bisexual men within interconnected sexual networks. We investigated the sexual history of HMPX cases seen at a tertiary hospital in Bayelsa State during the 2017-2018 outbreak in Nigeria.Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted between 20 October 2017 and 2 January 2019 among adult confirmed/probable HMPX cases. A questionnaire was used to collect data on the sexual history of participants, including sexual contact in relation to the first symptom, and high-risk behaviours (HRB) such as a history of condomless casual sex, multiple sexual partners, and transactional sex.Results: Of 21 patients, 16 (76.2%) gave consent to participate in the study: age range of 22-43 years, 75% males, three (18.8%) HIV-1 positive, and 13 (81.2%) with genital ulcers. Nine (56.2%) of participants reported HRB, and all were male heterosexuals. Eight of the 16 participants (50%) reported having sex within a month before their first symptom, and five (62.5%) of this number reported HRB. There were two cases of sex with a partner with a non-genital rash, and a spouse who developed a vulval ulcer four days after sex with her husband.Conclusion: Our results support the role of sexual contact in the transmission of monkeypox among some confirmed cases from Nigeria. However, future elaborate studies are required to confirm if sexual behaviour and sexual transmission are associated with HMPX in Nigeria.

A case of suicide during the 2017 monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria.

We report a case of suicide in a 34-year-old businessman who was admitted to an isolation facility in a tertiary hospital during the 2017/2018 monkeypox outbreak in Nigeria. We describe the possible psychosocial factors associated with suicide and highlight the challenges faced and lessons learnt in the management of the case. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case of suicide linked to human monkeypox.

Population health outcomes in Nigeria compared with other west African countries, 1998-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study.

BACKGROUND: Population-level health and mortality data are crucial for evidence-informed policy but scarce in Nigeria. To fill this gap, we undertook a comprehensive assessment of the burden of disease in Nigeria and compared outcomes to other west African countries. METHODS: In this systematic analysis, using data and results of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019, we analysed patterns of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and health system coverage for Nigeria and 15 other west African countries by gender in 1998 and 2019. Estimates of all-age and age-standardised disability-adjusted life-years for 369 diseases and injuries and 87 risk factors are presented for Nigeria. Health expenditure per person and gross domestic product were extracted from the World Bank repository. FINDINGS: Between 1998 and 2019, life expectancy and HALE increased in Nigeria by 18% to 64·3 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 62·2-66·6), mortality reduced for all age groups for both male and female individuals, and health expenditure per person increased from the 11th to third highest in west Africa by 2018 (US$18·6 in 2001 to $83·75 in 2018). Nonetheless, relative outcomes remained poor; Nigeria ranked sixth in west Africa for age-standardised mortality, seventh for HALE, tenth for YLLs, 12th for health system coverage, and 14th for YLDs in 2019. Malaria (5176·3 YLLs per 100 000 people, 95% UI 2464·0-9591·1) and neonatal disorders (4818·8 YLLs per 100 000, 3865·9-6064·2) were the leading causes of YLLs in Nigeria in 2019. Nigeria had the fourth-highest under-five mortality rate for male individuals (2491·8 deaths per 100 000, 95% UI 1986·1-3140·1) and female individuals (2117·7 deaths per 100 000, 1756·7-2569·1), but among the lowest mortality for men older than 55 years. There was evidence of a growing non-communicable disease burden facing older Nigerians. INTERPRETATION: Health outcomes remain poor in Nigeria despite higher expenditure since 2001. Better outcomes in countries with equivalent or lower health expenditure suggest health system strengthening and targeted intervention to address unsafe water sources, poor sanitation, malnutrition, and exposure to air pollution could substantially improve population health. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Exportation of Monkeypox Virus From the African Continent.

BACKGROUND: The largest West African monkeypox outbreak began September 2017, in Nigeria. Four individuals traveling from Nigeria to the United Kingdom (n = 2), Israel (n = 1), and Singapore (n = 1) became the first human monkeypox cases exported from Africa, and a related nosocomial transmission event in the United Kingdom became the first confirmed human-to-human monkeypox transmission event outside of Africa. METHODS: Epidemiological and molecular data for exported and Nigerian cases were analyzed jointly to better understand the exportations in the temporal and geographic context of the outbreak. RESULTS: Isolates from all travelers and a Bayelsa case shared a most recent common ancestor and traveled to Bayelsa, Delta, or Rivers states. Genetic variation for this cluster was lower than would be expected from a random sampling of genomes from this outbreak, but data did not support direct links between travelers. CONCLUSIONS: Monophyly of exportation cases and the Bayelsa sample, along with the intermediate levels of genetic variation, suggest a small pool of related isolates is the likely source for the exported infections. This may be the result of the level of genetic variation present in monkeypox isolates circulating within the contiguous region of Bayelsa, Delta, and Rivers states, or another more restricted, yet unidentified source pool.

A multicentre point prevalence study of antibiotics utilization in hospitalized patients in an urban secondary and a tertiary healthcare facilities in Nigeria: findings and implications.

OBJECTIVES: The understanding of antimicrobial utilization patterns is pertinent to successful implementation of the National Action Plans on Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR). There is, however, limited information on antibiotics utilization in Nigeria. This study was undertaken to build on existing information and provide direction for appropriate interventions including Antibiotics Stewardship Programs (ASP). METHOD: A Point Prevalence Study (PPS) was conducted in two public urban health facilities in Lagos, Nigeria using a design adapted from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) and Global-PPS surveys. RESULTS: The prevalence of antibiotics use was 80.6% administered mostly parenterally (83.1% of total prescriptions) with concerns with extended surgical antibiotics prophylaxis. The mostly used antibiotics in the secondary hospital were parenteral metronidazole (32.4%), ceftriaxone (27.5%), and amoxicillin + clavulanate (8.2%) while the mostly used in the tertiary hospital were ceftriaxone (25.3%), parenteral metronidazole (19.1%), and amoxicillin + clavulanate (9.3%). There was an appreciable lack of specific functional capacities, policies, and processes to promote appropriate antimicrobial use in both hospitals. CONCLUSIONS: There is high rate of antibiotics utilization in these facilities with lack of institutional frameworks and processes for ensuring appropriate antibiotic use. The study provides the information needed to improve future antimicrobial use in hospitals and reduce AMR.

The niche of One Health approaches in Lassa fever surveillance and control.

Lassa fever (LF), a zoonotic illness, represents a public health burden in West African countries where the Lassa virus (LASV) circulates among rodents. Human exposure hinges significantly on LASV ecology, which is in turn shaped by various parameters such as weather seasonality and even virus and rodent-host genetics. Furthermore, human behaviour, despite playing a key role in the zoonotic nature of the disease, critically affects either the spread or control of human-to-human transmission. Previous estimations on LF burden date from the 80s and it is unclear how the population expansion and the improvement on diagnostics and surveillance methods have affected such predictions. Although recent data have contributed to the awareness of epidemics, the real impact of LF in West African communities will only be possible with the intensification of interdisciplinary efforts in research and public health approaches. This review discusses the causes and consequences of LF from a One Health perspective, and how the application of this concept can improve the surveillance and control of this disease in West Africa.

Systems thinking for health emergencies: use of process mapping during outbreak response.

Process mapping is a systems thinking approach used to understand, analyse and optimise processes within complex systems. We aim to demonstrate how this methodology can be applied during disease outbreaks to strengthen response and health systems. Process mapping exercises were conducted during three unique emerging disease outbreak contexts with different: mode of transmission, size, and health system infrastructure. System functioning improved considerably in each country. In Sierra Leone, laboratory testing was accelerated from 6 days to within 24 hours. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, time to suspected case notification reduced from 7 to 3 days. In Nigeria, key data reached the national level in 48 hours instead of 5 days. Our research shows that despite the chaos and complexities associated with emerging pathogen outbreaks, the implementation of a process mapping exercise can address immediate response priorities while simultaneously strengthening components of a health system.

Response to the Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Across Africa: Successes, Challenges, and Implications for the Future.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has already claimed considerable lives. There are major concerns in Africa due to existing high prevalence rates for both infectious and non-infectious diseases and limited resources in terms of personnel, beds and equipment. Alongside this, concerns that lockdown and other measures will have on prevention and management of other infectious diseases and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). NCDs are an increasing issue with rising morbidity and mortality rates. The World Health Organization (WHO) warns that a lack of nets and treatment could result in up to 18 million additional cases of malaria and up to 30,000 additional deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. OBJECTIVE: Document current prevalence and mortality rates from COVID-19 alongside economic and other measures to reduce its spread and impact across Africa. In addition, suggested ways forward among all key stakeholder groups. OUR APPROACH: Contextualise the findings from a wide range of publications including internet-based publications coupled with input from senior-level personnel. ONGOING ACTIVITIES: Prevalence and mortality rates are currently lower in Africa than among several Western countries and the USA. This could be due to a number of factors including early instigation of lockdown and border closures, the younger age of the population, lack of robust reporting systems and as yet unidentified genetic and other factors. Innovation is accelerating to address concerns with available equipment. There are ongoing steps to address the level of misinformation and its consequences including fines. There are also ongoing initiatives across Africa to start addressing the unintended consequences of COVID-19 activities including lockdown measures and their impact on NCDs including the likely rise in mental health disorders, exacerbated by increasing stigma associated with COVID-19. Strategies include extending prescription lengths, telemedicine and encouraging vaccination. However, these need to be accelerated to prevent increased morbidity and mortality. CONCLUSION: There are multiple activities across Africa to reduce the spread of COVID-19 and address misinformation, which can have catastrophic consequences, assisted by the WHO and others, which appear to be working in a number of countries. Research is ongoing to clarify the unintended consequences given ongoing concerns to guide future activities. Countries are learning from each other.

Clinical Course and Outcome of Human Monkeypox in Nigeria.

In a retrospective review of hospital records of 40 human monkeypox cases from Nigeria, the majority developed fever and self-limiting vesiculopustular skin eruptions. Five deaths were reported. Compared to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative cases, HIV type 1-coinfected cases had more prolonged illness, larger lesions, and higher rates of both secondary bacterial skin infections and genital ulcers.